
Missouri sits in the middle of America — geographically, culturally, and sometimes statistically. It’s a state of river towns and rolling farmland, barbecue smoke and baseball pride. But once the sun sets and the crime data comes out, Missouri tells a colder story.
This is not the postcard version.
This is the numbers.
Today we examine:
- The most dangerous city in Missouri with over 50,000 residents
- The safest city in Missouri with over 50,000 residents
- Where each ranks nationally
- Where Missouri falls among the safest states
- And how political control has shifted since 1990
Because in Missouri, the difference between peace and police tape can be a matter of a few highway exits.
🔥St. Louis is the Most Dangerous City in Missouri (Over 50,000 Residents)
St. Louis has long battled a reputation that isn’t exactly tourist-brochure friendly. While the Gateway Arch rises as a symbol of westward expansion, crime statistics often pull the conversation back down to earth.
📊 St. Louis Crime Snapshot (Recent FBI & State Data Averages)
- Violent crime rate: ~1,800–2,200 per 100,000 residents
- Homicide rate: Frequently among the highest per capita in the U.S.
- Property crime rate: ~3,500–4,000 per 100,000 residents
- National violent crime average: ~380–400 per 100,000
At times, St. Louis’ violent crime rate has been five to six times higher than the national average.
That’s not a statistical rounding error. That’s a pattern.
🧨 Why Is St. Louis So Crime-Heavy?
- City–County Divide
St. Louis City is administratively separate from St. Louis County, meaning crime statistics reflect a smaller, high-density urban core rather than a blended metro area. This inflates per-capita figures. - Concentrated Poverty
Certain neighborhoods face long-term economic distress and housing instability. - Historic Population Decline
Shrinking tax bases strain public services. - Gun Violence Trends
Like many U.S. cities, firearm-related incidents drive violent crime totals. - Drug Markets & Interstate Corridors
Major highways create transit routes for trafficking activity.
Dark humor? In St. Louis, the Arch isn’t the only thing that rises sharply — so have homicide spikes during certain years.
Yet it’s important to note: crime is highly concentrated in specific neighborhoods. The entire city is not a crime scene — but the statistics remain severe.
🏆 National Ranking
Among cities over 50,000 residents, St. Louis frequently ranks:
#1 to #5 in the Top 50 Most Dangerous U.S. Cities
Depending on the year and dataset, it has often held the #1 position in violent crime per capita.
That’s a ranking no chamber of commerce wants to advertise.
🌤 O’Fallon is the Safest City in Missouri (Over 50,000 Residents)
Now let’s drive west into suburbia.
O’Fallon feels like a different universe from St. Louis’ urban core. Manicured neighborhoods. Youth sports leagues. The kind of place where the loudest siren is usually a fire truck responding to an overenthusiastic backyard grill.
📊 O’Fallon Crime Snapshot
- Violent crime rate: ~90–130 per 100,000 residents
- Property crime rate: ~900–1,200 per 100,000 residents
- Overall crime rate: Far below state and national averages
Compared to St. Louis, O’Fallon’s violent crime rate is roughly 15 to 20 times lower.
That’s not subtle. That’s statistical whiplash.
🛡 Why Is O’Fallon So Safe?
- Higher Median Income
- Low Poverty Levels
- Planned Suburban Growth
- Strong Community Policing
- Family-Oriented Demographics
- Lower Population Density
O’Fallon benefits from suburban insulation — close enough to economic opportunity, far enough from concentrated urban crime zones.
If St. Louis feels like a gritty crime drama intro, O’Fallon feels like the quiet town where nothing ever happens… and that’s exactly how residents prefer it.
🏆 National Safety Ranking
Among U.S. cities over 50,000 residents, O’Fallon often ranks:
#20 to #35 in the Top 50 Safest Cities in America
It’s not Mayberry. But statistically, it’s one of Missouri’s safest mid-sized municipalities.
🗺 Where Does Missouri Rank Among the Safest States?
Zooming out statewide:
- Missouri violent crime rate: ~500–550 per 100,000 residents
- National average: ~380–400 per 100,000
Missouri typically ranks:
#38 to #45 among the Top 50 Safest States
In other words, it lands in the lower tier nationally for safety.
Urban crime in St. Louis and Kansas City heavily influences statewide averages. Rural Missouri remains significantly safer — but metro areas drive the rankings.
Missouri isn’t uniformly dangerous.
It’s uneven.
Very uneven.
🏛 Missouri’s Political Landscape Since 1990
Missouri was once considered a classic swing state. Over the past decade, it has leaned more Republican at the statewide level.
Let’s break it down.
Democratic Representation Since 1990

U.S. Senate
Notable Democratic senators include:
- Claire McCaskill (2007–2019)
- Jean Carnahan (2001–2002)
Democrats have held Senate seats intermittently, but Republicans have dominated in recent years.
U.S. House of Representatives
Since 1990, Democrats have typically held 2 to 4 congressional seats, depending on election cycles and redistricting.
Democratic Governors Since 1990
- Bob Holden (2001–2005)
- Jay Nixon (2009–2017)
Total Democratic Governors since 1990: 2
Republican Representation Since 1990

U.S. Senate
Republicans have controlled both Senate seats for extended stretches, especially after 2018.
Republican Governors Since 1990
- John Ashcroft (1985–1993; includes early 1990s overlap)
- Matt Blunt (2005–2009)
- Eric Greitens (2017–2018)
- Mike Parson (2018–2025)
Total Republican Governors since 1990: 4
Missouri has leaned Republican in statewide executive offices more often than Democratic over the past three decades.
🧩 Does Politics Equal Crime?

Crime rates reflect:
- Economic shifts
- Urban segregation patterns
- Drug epidemics
- Policing strategies
- Education disparities
- Population density
No single party owns the statistics. Crime trends often evolve over decades, not election cycles.
Missouri’s urban-rural divide explains much of its crime disparity — more than party labels alone.
🌒 Final Verdict: Missouri’s Two Realities
In St. Louis, crime statistics remain among the highest in the nation per capita. Concentrated violence and structural challenges keep it near the top of national danger rankings.
In O’Fallon, stability, suburban planning, and economic insulation produce one of the safest large-city environments in the state.
Missouri overall ranks in the lower third nationally for safety — but that ranking hides enormous variation.
One ZIP code installs security systems.
Another installs porch swings.
Same state. Different reality.
Dark? Sometimes.
Hopeless? Not necessarily.
Because statistics show where the problems are — and that’s the first step toward solving them.
















































